Three ways to beat the bookmakers , a rational betting guide.
Online gambling became a huge market and in particular, sports betting has displayed the fastest evolution. Unfortunately just like in a Casino , the house always wins! People constantly tried to come up with various systems meant to give them the edge but there’s absolutely no mathematical way in which you can beat the house. They’d be out of business if there was one. Obviously there are short term exceptions but on average and in the long run , we will most probably lose!
Now all this negative stuff for gamblers is also valid for sports betting. So why bother to find out ways to bash the bookmakers? Well…sports betting allows you to find means to reduce the Luck factor ! You can use any system of your choice , doesn’t matter how good it is , the secret is to possess the knowledge to implement it.
Let’s exemplify …I’m going to take a model based mainly on research , stats and mathematical analysis and apply it where it actually works!
Let’s assume you don’t know anything about sports and want to place bets based on stats alone…you decide how rational the arguments are.
Market: Halftime Draw:
Usually for a HT draw the odds are around 2 . So if you want to win by placing such a bet , the hitrate has got to be at about 50%. The secret is to find a league where to apply this kind of wagers. Which is the right league? You can do your own research and in time you’ll find out which league is more prone to HT draws. Personally I love the French Second League. In the last round 3 out of 5 games were draws after 45 minutes. So what happens if you lose…well, next time you double your bet . Now you’re saying that’s like playing roulette and always betting on red while doubling the amount until red wins. What happens when you reach a point in which your bankroll doesn’t allow you to double? In football you won’t. Because while with Casino gambling, the chances of winning are of 50% on average , irrespective of the history of wagers, with sports those chances of 50% apply in individual cases and are affected by the history of games played. So the secret is to choose the right sport, the game and the adequate team which is more likely to draw. And this is where the knowledge part kicks in..the art of choosing the right team!
2: NHL Ice Hockey
This is a very tough sport to predict the outcome of a game. But there’s a great market which allows you to take advantage of some decent odds.
Over/Under 5.5 goals. Odds: 1.75 – 2.1
The statistical part:
On average more than 60% of hockey games are under 5.5 goals games. Now the bookies realized that and have adjusted. Now they rarely offer 5.5 goals as a line…they lowered it to 5. That doesn’t change too much…what happens if you bet on under 5 goals and exactly 5 are scored? The bet will be voided and you’ll get your money back.
The knowledge part:
Choosing the team which is more likely to be involved in low scoring games. Ideally a team with a good defence and poor offence which is always involved in close games. Being careful about their opponents and the matchups against a particular team . Also , very important…try to bet on a team with a hot goaltender because he is the most important player on ice.
3. NBA Basketball
Betting on the outcome of NBA games is pretty reliable aswell but again to lower the hazard factor the market Total Points Over/ Under is the best. More exactly the Under total points line is the one to go with here.
The statistical part:
Take a look at the line the bookmakers offer for Total Points scored…you’ll see that the result will be that on average 50% of the games will be over and obviously 50% under the given line.
The knowledge part:
Again…it’s all about going with the right team. Choose an offensively challenged team. A coach who likes a slow pace , whose focus point is on D. Plenty of teams that fit in that definition.
Always check the injury list…if a main offensive player is missing…jump on that chance.
And here is a very important reason why I love this line. For a certain team to score its average amount of points per game , you need all players to be pretty consistent. You know that doesn’t happen..usually if a certain player doesn’t meet his average, someone ,on the team will step in. But…and this is real important….if your star player catches an off day and he will at least once a week, there’s no way that his lack of production will be compensated easily! So to conclude , it’s enough for the star player to struggle , to make the chosen Under Total Points line a winner!
To summarize , examples like this that can be exploited are present in every sport. Do you want to win…well combine your research based on stats with the knowledge of the game itself. Knowledge always gives you an edge in real life, why shouldn’t it apply to sports betting aswell?
And this is what our philosophy is all about ..being that missing piece in the puzzle between neutral stats and rational arguments…